It happens on systems that are very successful out of the gate, like the Wii, and quite likely the Switch. Not agreeing with a point doesn't equate to ignoring it. 800,000 copies on 3DS do not put Kirby among Nintendo's biggest franchises in Japan. Kirby selling 800,000 copies on the long run on a twenty million installed base definitely does not give much confidence that it will sell even in a similar order of magnitude on the installed base the Switch will have in a couple of months. I simply mentioned that those numbers aren't as big as some paint them when compared to the installed base.
The one question I didn't respond to (which I did above) is simply because I missed it. Ignore points? I haven't ignored any relevant point. Last reply, since you make some pretty false points on a personal level, which I'll address. Splatoon managed to drag the WiiU along for months but that was a much longer 'legged' franchise debut with a smaller initial spike.
By the time we hit summer, we could be back to seeing <20k weeks if not lower because MHW cannot alone reverse the tide.
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Now, we are looking at a big January and early February into March -> Summer -> Fall with an almost completely void release schedule for software that has the potential to matter for hardware.
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To put it into context, last year, the PS4 off the highs of DQXI ran into summer (and then a weak holiday) and lost its entire YoY lead and ended up flat and this was also with early sales/bundles of MHW moving some hardware to fatten up the end of year performance in the holiday. I had though there was a chance for KH3 to fill in the summer spot where DQXI had been last year but that's obviously impossible now. Barring some truly crazy changes Nintendo starts the game with one card away from a royal flush, Sony has a pair of aces.Įven with a bump, summer will be brutal for the PS4 as it has nothing lined up as far as we know, and those are the most utterly devastating months of the year that span many, many weeks. FF hasn't had that pull, and neither has DQ. No PS4 game has or is likely to have that kind of selling power. The first Pokemon of the gen will shift millions of Switch alone. I'd expect Switch to be millions of units ahead by the time it hits Japanese shelves. I don't expect a PS5 to be announced until the earliest of 2019 though. Depending on what the PS4's new baseline is, and the Switch actual baseline, Switch could eclipse PS4 early next year to mid or two years from now. Switch we won't really know until the thing stops selling out every week. PS4 baseline was around 20-30k units weekly until MHW. Switch.we won't actually know what it's top end sales are likely to be until Nintendo produces more than they sell every week. But it still isn't likely to eclipse the PS3, at best marginally pass it. PS4 is going to sell a lot higher than I initially thought.
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